February 2026 Issue
The Dow Jumped Over the Moon!
Greetings!
History was made last Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 50,000 for the first time. Remember all the talk about tariffs, the AI bubble, and stock market concentration? Yep, neither do I—ha-ha. Sometimes a little perspective is helpful, and I apologize if you’ve heard this story before, but it bears repeating.
When I started in 1983, Dow Jones was at 1,200. (Nope, didn’t leave out a zero.) I was “smiling and dialing” in Houston and got an ole Texan on the line who said, “Boy, when the market pulls back to 1,000, you call me, because it’s too high at these levels.” So, I wrote on his prospect card to call “Tex” when the market went down to 1,000.
Guess what? Tex never got the call, because the market never pulled back to that level.
Another monumental day came on March 29, 1999, when the DJIA closed above 10,000 for the first time. As fate would have it, I was at the New York Stock Exchange that very day, taking some clients to experience the floor. Man, it was exciting back then—with traders scurrying around and all the hustle and bustle. Now, of course, it’s almost entirely electronic. I’m glad I got to experience the floor on a dozen or so occasions.
So why folks worry about timing is beyond me—because over the long term, it usually turns out to be a rounding error. The truth is that the market can and will go in any direction it wants to confound investors and advisors alike in the short term. Someone once said, “The market does whatever it takes to make the most amount of people wrong.” This is true, which is why staying on the course is easier said than done. But armed with a solid plan and a long-term horizon, one really can’t go wrong.
It’s also worth mentioning that the “January Effect” (Observed by investment banker Sidney Wachtel in 1942) was positive this year. Simply stated, if January is up, the market is up 84% of the time for the year. When you add to the fact that the first five trading days were positive, reliability jumps to an incredible 90% going back to 1950!
Speaking of the moon, many of our top clients have a position in SpaceX, and the news just keeps getting better. Monies invested in July have gone up 2.5 times, and with Musk acknowledging an IPO this year, it’s forecast to go much higher! (Disclosure 1: Past performance does not guarantee future results). In my head, I keep hearing Ralph Kramden of The Honeymooners saying, “Wham, pow, to the moon, Alice!” Not exactly a statement that would be considered appropriate today, but hey—it was funny as a six-year-old.
It’s important to note it was comic bluster, not actual violence, and Alice always stood on her ground. For those not of advanced age, it’s worth a Google search for a good laugh.
We continue to see Private Equity (PE) offerings—the kind you’ll never see at the big firms, as they’re too busy figuring out a way to get you to buy another credit card. We remain committed to doing the due diligence to bring you these cutting-edge ideas. Stay tuned.
We are also busy locking in interest rates, as money markets are now in the mid-3% range and, we believe, on their way to the 2% area. Let’s make sure we secure these rates before it’s too late. If you need money for taxes or other short-term obligations, we feel it’s prudent to leave it in money market funds—but if it’s simply “dry powder,” let’s put it to work!
REMINDER: Lindsey, Jack, Jen, and Courtney are standing by to package your tax information and forward it to your CPA or accountant once it’s complete. Here are the current estimated release dates:
- 1099 Forms will begin being sent out on February 17 and will be issued no later than March 12.
- Consolidated 1099—covering capital gains, interest, dividends, and other taxable items—will include, where applicable: Forms 1099‑DIV, 1099‑INT, 1099‑B, 1099‑OID, and 1099‑MISC.
Leading our own firm continues to be deeply rewarding, and your ongoing trust and support play a significant role in that. We welcome the opportunity to review your accounts or discuss any questions you may have.
Regards,
Tim & Team
P.S. The Super Bowl Indicator (authored in 1978 by Leonard Koppett of The New York Times) states that if the NFC team wins the Super Bowl, the stock market will go up that year. That’s exactly what happened—so let’s hope it holds true again!
Disclosure 1: Past performance does not guarantee future results). Disclosure 2: KFBMA and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice; therefore, it is important to coordinate with your tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Disclosure 3: For eligible clients, we offer investment solutions beyond traditional publicly traded stocks and bonds. These strategies are considered part of a broader portfolio review and are evaluated based on individual objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and overall financial circumstances. These strategies may not be suitable for all investors. This material is for informational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
Source 1: The Stock Trader’s Almanac, by Jeffrey A. Hirsh, Published by Wiley.
Source 2: “January Effect” statistic (observed by investment banker, Sidney Wachtel in 1942
